Friday, November 22, 2013

District Expects Slight Increase in K-12 Enrollment



An early look at future enrollment estimates that the K-12 population will grow less than 1% in 2014, with minor fluctuations at each school. K-12 enrollment was predicted to rise 2% for the current school year, but actually rose by 5.2%.  The most significant increases occurred in kindergarten and between grades eight and nine.

Each year, the proposed school budget begins with estimates of enrollment. As it has for the past eight years, F.A.C.T.S Presentation Services prepared preliminary projections.  These projections reflect historical patterns and also incorporate population trends, resident live births, and non-public school enrollment. The projections will be finalized in early 2014 as additional information is gathered.

The projections are the cornerstone for determining staffing levels in the proposed budget.  The current year addressed enrollment issues by adding 2.0 teachers -- one at kindergarten and one at the Middle School. There may be similar adjustments this year based on the distribution of students at each grade level and as a way to anticipate any inaccuracies in the estimates. The initial 2014-15 budget will be presented no later than February 1, 2014.


Superintendent David Quattrone mentioned several other related points:
  • Board policy states a preference for classes 25 or under, but acknowledges that there will be variation both above and below that figure. There is no hard and fast trigger point for adding a section at any grade level or subject area. We are now going through the staffing process with each principal, and we will examine not only next year’s numbers but the predicted trends over the next four years.
  • The importance of class size varies by subject, teaching method, and age of student.
  • Class size is only one variable. Other variables may have an equal or greater impact on educational quality – such as intervention with special populations, or incorporating technology support or special subject expertise.
  • It is also important to acknowledge the other cost implications of increasing the number of sections, such as space needs, and the corresponding need to add staffing for required special subjects such as art, physical education, and music. 
Board members noted the trend of year-to-year increases as cohorts progress through the Elementary years; then enrollments stabilize at the secondary schools. Questions were also raised about the cause of the increases and the potential impact on facilities.